Watching the developing conflict in Iran reminds us of Jaws, the four-film series (yes, there were four) – the shark keeps coming back. Last year, conflict broke out in the same region. Fortunately for ordinary people caught in the middle, that conflict was over relatively quickly. At the moment, nobody can reliably predict how long the current war will last. And the shark? It is causing fear and uncertainty in the investing markets, but perhaps not in the way you think.

Last Friday, the United States (U.S.) Supreme Court, the highest court in the U.S. federal judiciary, struck down International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) based tariffs that President Trump had imposed on trading partners globally in April last year. According to U.S. Supreme Court, the president had overstepped his authority by introducing his signature sweeping tariffs using IEEPA.

More than a few of the activities at this year’s winter Olympics are risky, if not downright dangerous. Despite this, athletes continue to launch off platforms, speed down mountain slopes, and do backflips on the ice for the possibility of earning a medal.

For them, the risks are calculated. They’ve trained for this, after all. But they take risks because, to them, becoming an Olympic champion makes it a worthwhile pursuit.

We all have different appetites for risk. Especially when it comes to investing.

We have been watching some of the Olympic coverage. I can’t wait for short-track speed skating. It has to be one of the most dramatic events! Sometimes, a skater takes an early lead and cruises to an easy victory. Other times, that aggressive move sees them colliding with another athlete and crashing into the boards.  

Australian short-track speed skater Steven Bradbury is best known for his 1000m gold medal in 2002. He was in last place behind four top favourites. On the final turn of the race, the top four collided with each other, careening into the padded boards. And Bradbury cruised to victory.

His win was so improbable that “Doing a Bradbury” is a slang phrase in Australia for an unexpected win based on the misfortunes of others. The reason we mention this is that, sometimes, the stock markets feel like that.

Marc Andreessen, the venture capitalist-turned-tech-philosopher, was quoted in 2011 as saying “software is eating the world.” He captured a fundamental shift as digital technology transformed every industry it touched globally.

Six years later, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang updated this statement by stating that “software is eating the world … but artificial intelligence (AI) is eating software." And Nvidia's multi-trillion-dollar market capitalization has validated this statement. At least so far.

The United States (U.S.) economy is still growing as output expanded strongly, driven by consumer and government spending. But it might be showing signs of strain. Inflation, which had been drifting lower, is moving higher again as businesses pass tariff costs on to consumers. Consumer confidence appears to be falling, the labour market is cooling, and the U.S. dollar has depreciated sharply since March of 2025. (1)

On Tuesday this week, the value of the U.S. dollar fell again after the President expressed little concern about recent drops.

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have been available to investors for more than 30 years. Initially, ETFs were best known for providing investors direct access to large indices – the S&P 500 and the TSX.

The first ETF was traded in the United States (U.S.) in 1989. It was called the Index Participation Shares (IPS) and was an S&P 500 proxy that traded on the American Stock Exchange and the Philadelphia Stock Exchange. This new investment product was so new and misunderstood that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange filed a lawsuit to stop the sale of IPS in the U.S.

For almost half of human history, our ancestors moved with the four-legged food supplies of their respective areas, leaving only traces of their lives in the form of cave drawings, stone weapons, and tools.

Although home ownership may be less affordable than it was in the past, it is still open to many. And we can thank the Industrial Revolution, one of the greatest economic equalizers in human history, for this. Albeit slow, the transfer of wealth to the working class and entrepreneurs meant more people, in more places, could purchase and own their own home.

Another year is behind us. As we embark on another tour around the sun, like clockwork, forecasts are emerging about how markets and economies will look  in 2026. We read a lot of these – sometimes they are entertaining, sometimes they are enlightening. Rarely are they 100% correct.

Before we look at industry predictions for 2026, let’s take a quick look back at 2025.

The end is nigh… for the year that is.

And what a year it has been for investors! Trade wars, the rise of AI, outperformance by the technology sector, tariffs, interest rates… it’s enough to make your head spin. To bring some of this back down to earth, we decided to take a quick look back at some of the key events that shaped the investment landscape in 2025.