Lexicon Financial Group Weekly Update — July 8, 2026
“Knowledge, indeed, is the enemy of a speculator during a boom.”
From the desk of Craig Swistun, CIM, MFA-P, Portfolio Manager, Raymond James Investment Counsel, and Wayne Hendry, Client Relationship Manager, Raymond James Investment Counsel
ISSUE 236
Looking Around
Back in 1966, the Beach Boys had a massive hit with their song Good Vibrations which is an important work in rock history. It was famously ranked No. 1 on the list of Top 250 American Songs. You know the song. We all do. “Good, good, good, good vibrations,” indeed.
For those that aren’t immersed in TikTok and online culture, “vibe investing” has emerged as a speculative, sentiment-driven strategy, prioritizing market mood, social narratives, and influencer hype over traditional fundamental analysis (management effectiveness, competitive advantages, and broader economic conditions) when assessing whether a stock is over- or undervalued. And for some investors, it delivers good, good vibrations.
There are two kinds of investment vibes:
Social‑sentiment vibe – The collective mood expressed across Reddit threads, X/Twitter posts, Discord chats, Google Trends spikes, and news‑comment sections, i.e., social media. This is the fast‑moving, often emotional pulse of the investing crowd.
CEO/company‑vision vibe – The narrative projected by leadership teams through shareholder letters, earnings calls, product‑launch keynotes, and long‑range mission statements. Examples here are how Elon Musk’s masterplans shape Tesla sentiment, or how Nvidia’s “AI‑first” story amplifies its stock market aura. (1)
And, according to Saul Oster, a young University of British Columbia student, there are times when he and his friends will be hanging out and someone will recommend buying a stock, and he will buy it based on a gut feeling rather than traditional research and analysis. Saul and his friends are part of a growing group that is dumping traditional investment methods and relying on vibes and life experiences to guide their investment decisions.
In fact, Saul says that the trades he has made based on intuition have yielded better results than the moves he’s made after researching. For example, his first major purchase was exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Canadian mining companies because he felt energy “was going to be the next big thing.” One of his friends invested in Walmart because, as a student, that’s where he goes for affordable prices and figured other people concerned about their budgets would choose Walmart too. (2)
There are pros and cons to any strategy, and vibe investing is no different. To avoid pitfalls, investors might consider a concept championed by Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, namely, second-level thinking.
First-level thinkers react impulsively to immediate events, while second-level thinkers dig deeper to assess the broader implications of those reactions. In a market where sentiment (emotion) can easily cloud judgement, this level of thinking is key. Investors must scrutinize whether the prevailing market enthusiasm or fear is justified—whether a soaring stock price genuinely reflects a company’s future potential or is simply overinflated. Conversely, they should evaluate whether negative sentiment has been exaggerated, leading to unjustified price declines. Mastering this understanding of market behaviour enables investors to avoid being misled by its emotional swings. (3)
Investing on emotion alone is not new. It causes bubbles to form and to pop. Remember the dot-com bubble? Stories were so good, sentiment was high, until a lot of it came crashing down. Emotions absolutely have an influence on markets; indeed, they trade on sentiment.
But ultimately investing isn’t gambling. Going on feelings and instinct alone requires more luck than skill. And, because the approach is inherently undisciplined, it is incredibly hard to repeat. Worse, it may cause people to “buy high” and “sell low” if their feelings don’t match the mood of the market.
We’ve seen examples where people’s “instincts” have paid off. They’ll tell you about them at cocktail parties and at the dog park. What you don’t hear are the stories where they were wrong.
We have had a close family member that was a gambler who liked to bet on the horses. They always spoke about the bets that won but rarely mentioned the ones that didn’t. Vibe investing in some ways is similar. “Good vibrations” that pay off get promoted and pushed on social channels, which amplifies the story. We pay attention to this but also pay attention to cautionary tales.
Read and Watch
Want deeper insight into topics in your Weekly Update? Then, read and/or right click:
TSX gains more than 300 points on basic materials stocks
Trump Gets Brutal Reality Check With Jobs Numbers
Eurozone Inflation Falls More Than Expected. Will the ECB Hold Interest Rates?
The Japanese yen is at a 40-year low. Here’s why that matters
Chinese Stock Markets Wrap Up First Half With Tech-Driven Gains
Looking Back
Canada's main stock market rose last Friday to a two-week high, as gold and copper prices rose and metal mining shares led broad-based gains, after expectations decreased for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Nine of 10 major sectors posted gains, including materials, as gold and copper prices climbed. Energy added 0.6 per cent as the price of oil edged 0.1 per cent higher to US$68.78 a barrel. Canada also announced on Thursday plans to build a new oil pipeline from Alberta to the Pacific Coast, which would give the world's fourth-largest oil producer greater capacity to export to Asia and ease its reliance on the United States.
Industrials were up 0.9 per cent while trade-sensitive stocks, such as leisure products and auto parts, rebounded after they posted steep declines on Thursday, which helped lift consumer discretionary by 0.8 per cent. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (TSX) ended the day up 0.9 per cent – the highest closing level since June 16. For the week, the TSX added 0.8 per cent and it is up approximately 10 per cent for the year. (4)
At the end of a holiday-shortened week, major U.S. stock markets finished mixed again. The Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500 Index, and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose, while the Russell 2000 and S&P MidCap 400 indexes declined. Within the S&P 500, the communication services, financials, and consumer discretionary sectors all posted strong gains for the week, while real estate, utilities, and energy shares finished lower. U.S. markets were closed on Friday in observance of the Independence Day holiday.
The Labor Department reported last week that the U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June. This was well below the estimate for around 110,000 and marks the softest reading since February. Prior months were also revised lower, with May’s gain cut to 129,000 from 172,000 and April’s revised to 148,000 from 179,000. Following the report, the probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s July meeting dropped from around 29 per cent to about 18 per cent, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
On Wednesday, private payrolls firm ADP also reported that private employers added a lower-than-expected 98,000 jobs in June, down from 122,000 in May. The report noted that most job gains were in services-providing industries and that small firms accounted for over half of the month’s hiring.
Meanwhile, the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary showed that job openings rose modestly to 7.594 million in May, above consensus expectations and the highest reading since May 2024. Hiring and quits rates were unchanged from the prior month.
Other economic data from last week were somewhat mixed. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index came in below expectations at 91.2 in June, although it improved slightly from May’s downwardly revised reading of 90.6. Although the report showed a modest improvement in expectations, consumers’ assessment of current conditions weakened. The labour market differential also narrowed as the share of respondents saying jobs were “hard to get” rose to the highest level in more than five years. (5)
Europe's broadest index, the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index hit a record high last Friday, supported by gains in cyclical stocks and investors pushing back on expectations for an imminent U.S. interest rate hike. Other major European markets finished last week mixed. Earlier last week, euro zone data indicated that inflation rose at a slower-than-expected pace in June and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde also stated that risks to inflation and economic growth in Europe were now more balanced than a few weeks earlier. (6)
Japan’s stock markets edged up slightly last week. This was due to the paring back of rate hike bets in the United States, and positive economic signs at home boosted sentiment. Market sentiment was also supported by data in Japan on Friday showing improving services activity. (7)
Mainland Chinese stock markets rebounded last Friday after a sharp selloff in chipmakers in the previous session, as a tepid U.S. jobs report reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve would keep monetary policy supportive. (8)
The opinions expressed are those of Craig Swistun and not necessarily those of Raymond James Investment Counsel which is a subsidiary of Raymond James Ltd. Statistics and factual data and other information presented are from sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. It is furnished on the basis and understanding that Raymond James is to be under no liability whatsoever in respect thereof. It is for information purposes only and is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of securities. Raymond James advisors are not tax advisors, and we recommend that clients seek independent advice from a professional advisor on tax-related matters.
The Truth About "Vibe Investing" - Is It Legit?, Michael Do, LinkedIn Price, June 26, 2025
Why some young people are investing based on vibes, not research, Marcus Medford-Kerr, CBC Radio, November 24, 2025
Sentiment-Driven Investing: Are You Riding the Vibe or Valuing the Future?, TAMIM Asset Management, September 5, 2024
TSX near record closing high; mining shares up with gold, copper, Tharuniyaa Lakshmi and Fergal Smith, Reuters, July 3, 2026
Global markets weekly update - U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, T. Rowe Price, July 2, 2026
Europe's STOXX 600 clocks best week in over a month as rally broadens, Johann M Cherian and Purvi Agarwal, Reuters via Yahoo Finance, July 3, 2026
Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average Rises, Ekes out Weekly Gain, on Fed Bets, Domestic Growth Signs (Update 1), Reuters via The Japan News, July 3, 2026
China stocks rebound after selloff; Hong Kong extends gains on Fed rate outlook, Business Recorder, July 3, 2026
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Looking to Learn?
If you want to know more about some of the topics we wrote about this week, just click on the links below:
The Rise of the Vibe: How Feeling Drives Gen Z, Marketing, and Investing
