December 2 was Giving Tuesday, an annual day – the Tuesday after Thanksgiving in the United States (U.S.) – that is meant to be a counterbalance to the spending sprees of Black Friday and Cyber Monday. It focuses on encouraging people to give back through donations, volunteering, acts of kindness, or sharing their skills. Giving Tuesday, which started in New York in 2012, is now a global catalyst for year-round giving. (1)

There is a lot of talk these days about a “K-shaped economy” in the United States (U.S.). References are being made by corporate executives, Wall Street analysts, and even Federal Reserve officials.

But just what is a “K-shaped economy” and why does it matter?

Global stock markets have been on the retreat recently due to growing concerns about sky-high stock valuations as well as anxiety about whether artificial intelligence (AI) will generate enough profits to justify the massive spending that is being poured (and continues to be poured) into supporting the development of AI technology.

The billion-dollar question here is, “When this will happen?”

As individuals, we need a large, diversified set of products and a host of services to live a comfortable life. These include commodities like metals and fuel, utilities like electricity and transportation, and services like healthcare and entertainment.

And we need food to eat.

Howard Marks wrote an interesting piece entitled “Cockroaches in the Coal Mine.” And he raised an important point.

According to Marks, when the economy is humming along -- companies reporting growing earnings, stock prices are rising and profits are increasing, people (aka investors) will say that risk is their friend. The investor approach is, “The more risk I take, the more money I will make.” These good times heighten positive news (even if it is ambiguous) and downplay negative news. Moreover, the longer the good times last, the more the possibility of loss recedes.

Disconnected… that is what stock markets and economies look like in 2025. There’s always been a difference between what happens on “Main Street” versus what happens on “Wall Street,” but today, the stock market and the economy might as well be on different planets.

Rare earths or rare earth minerals are a group of 17 heavy metals that are abundant throughout the Earth’s crust. The United States Geological Survey estimated, in 2024, there were 110m tonnes of deposits worldwide. This includes 44m tonnes in China - by far the world’s largest producer.

Given that we are often asked for our perspective on investment-related concepts from the traditional and social media, we dedicated the “Looking Around” section to a longer-form article once a month. This month, our article looks at allure of shiny objects in investing.

It looks like our assessment of the impact of the Trump tariffs last week was timely. The tariff tit-for-tat had gasoline poured on it when President Trump announced that he would impose a 100 per cent tariff on all products from China, in response to China’s curbs last week on rare-earth minerals.

This tariff will take effect on November 1 and be imposed “over and above” other tariffs on Chinese exports, which are already 30 per cent and higher in some cases. And, it will be accompanied by the United States (U.S.) placing export controls on critical software. Trump has also signalled that his meeting in two weeks at an international economic conference in South Korea with President Xi of China may not happen.

We are now entering the sixth month of trade tariffs and it seems like a good time to assess their impact.

First some context. Where U.S. trade policy will land, and how trading partners will respond, is still a moving target. Over the past nine months, the U.S. administration has increased tariffs against virtually all trading partners and the levies continue to evolve week by week.

For now, it appears that the full impact of tariffs have yet to be felt. We continue to watch and monitor, and make adjustments as necessary. Should have you have any concerns, let’s set up a quick meeting and we’ll discuss it with you directly. There are no taxes or tariffs on our discussions!