The Iran war continues and, as of the time of writing, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most commercial traffic. Consumers are being impacted, and not just at the pump. As energy costs increase, companies who ship goods are forced to pass along higher costs. If this sounds familiar, it’s because it is. Higher energy prices are inflationary and make living in a modern economy more expensive.

So, it should come as no surprise that the economic impact of the conflict continues to dominate both traditional as well as social media. It’s even pushed the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) – the dominant new story of 2025 that was poised to define equity markets in 2026 – to the back pages.

Global stock markets have dealt with a lot this year. By now, we are all acutely aware of the conflict in Iran and the impact on oil prices as a result of the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. Just look at the prices at the pump. But, while these events may have been the spark that ignited higher market volatility, there is something else that has been fanning the flames.

Years ago, we thought we were living in the information age. Today, though, it feels like we are firmly living in the social media age. And sometimes, social media provides us with news. At other times, it provides us with noise.

Right now, there is a high-speed race taking place. It’s a battle between technology companies, national governments, and academics to build the world’s most advanced artificial intelligence (AI) system. Having the most advanced technology certainly may have benefits for businesses and economies. Unfortunately, this technology also makes it easier for criminals, too, who leverage the technology to take advantage of unsuspecting consumers.

Call it a war, an incursion, or something else, missiles and drones have been flying in the Middle East for almost two weeks now. The global impact of this remains to be seen, but at home, the evidence of disruption to global supply changes is the price of oil.

At the time of writing this weekly update, oil prices were rising again after dropping to below US$80. Where they will be at the time you read this is anybody’s guess.

Watching the developing conflict in Iran reminds us of Jaws, the four-film series (yes, there were four) – the shark keeps coming back. Last year, conflict broke out in the same region. Fortunately for ordinary people caught in the middle, that conflict was over relatively quickly. At the moment, nobody can reliably predict how long the current war will last. And the shark? It is causing fear and uncertainty in the investing markets, but perhaps not in the way you think.

Last Friday, the United States (U.S.) Supreme Court, the highest court in the U.S. federal judiciary, struck down International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) based tariffs that President Trump had imposed on trading partners globally in April last year. According to U.S. Supreme Court, the president had overstepped his authority by introducing his signature sweeping tariffs using IEEPA.

More than a few of the activities at this year’s winter Olympics are risky, if not downright dangerous. Despite this, athletes continue to launch off platforms, speed down mountain slopes, and do backflips on the ice for the possibility of earning a medal.

For them, the risks are calculated. They’ve trained for this, after all. But they take risks because, to them, becoming an Olympic champion makes it a worthwhile pursuit.

We all have different appetites for risk. Especially when it comes to investing.

We have been watching some of the Olympic coverage. I can’t wait for short-track speed skating. It has to be one of the most dramatic events! Sometimes, a skater takes an early lead and cruises to an easy victory. Other times, that aggressive move sees them colliding with another athlete and crashing into the boards.  

Australian short-track speed skater Steven Bradbury is best known for his 1000m gold medal in 2002. He was in last place behind four top favourites. On the final turn of the race, the top four collided with each other, careening into the padded boards. And Bradbury cruised to victory.

His win was so improbable that “Doing a Bradbury” is a slang phrase in Australia for an unexpected win based on the misfortunes of others. The reason we mention this is that, sometimes, the stock markets feel like that.

Marc Andreessen, the venture capitalist-turned-tech-philosopher, was quoted in 2011 as saying “software is eating the world.” He captured a fundamental shift as digital technology transformed every industry it touched globally.

Six years later, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang updated this statement by stating that “software is eating the world … but artificial intelligence (AI) is eating software." And Nvidia's multi-trillion-dollar market capitalization has validated this statement. At least so far.

The United States (U.S.) economy is still growing as output expanded strongly, driven by consumer and government spending. But it might be showing signs of strain. Inflation, which had been drifting lower, is moving higher again as businesses pass tariff costs on to consumers. Consumer confidence appears to be falling, the labour market is cooling, and the U.S. dollar has depreciated sharply since March of 2025. (1)

On Tuesday this week, the value of the U.S. dollar fell again after the President expressed little concern about recent drops.