This is a somewhat sombre and reflective weekly update. Many readers may recognize the name Irina Dorogan. We recently learned that she passed away unexpectedly in July. Of course, the news came as a complete shock to those who knew her.

Irina joined Cougar Global Investments in 2010 as an analyst, supporting the investment strategies developed by Dr James Breech. By the time I joined Cougar as Head of Wealth Management in 2019, the scope of her work and her responsibilities had expanded tremendously.

Wayne’s Economics 101 lecturer at the University of Cape Town said something that has stuck with him ever since, namely, “There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch” (or TANSTAAFL). Even when something looks completely free, it always has a hidden cost, a catch, or a trade-off. And that price has to be paid.

When I was Head of Wealth Management at an investment management firm, we employed a team-based approach to investment management. Every week, the entire team met to discuss market developments, review portfolio positioning, and determine whether changes were necessary. It was a disciplined process that worked well, and it was important to me that we continue that philosophy when we joined Raymond James Investment Counsel in 2020.

You may recall that in the 1985 film, Back to the Future, Marty McFly (played by the then effervescent Michael J. Fox) gets transported back to the 1950s in a modified DMC DeLorean. Sometimes it feels like we’ve gone back in time as well. Just look at where we are with trade tariffs.

The tariff train has left the station once again, as the United States (U.S.) is taking economic action against more than approximately 60 trading partners, including Canada. According to U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer, the White House is imposing these new tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.

Currently more than 800 wildfires are burning in Canada. Air quality alerts have been announced in Canada and several states in the United States (U.S.) In fact, some states even issued a "hazardous" warning.

The large cluster of fires affecting northwestern areas of Ontario are responsible for sending thick plumes of smoke and poor air quality from Thunder Bay and Toronto. It makes going outside not just unpleasant, but a challenge.

Similarly, the economy and economic projects would be better without a conflict along the Strait of Hormuz (Strait). So far, the global economy has weathered the energy shock, however, a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left global reserves close to critically low levels.

Back in 1966, the Beach Boys had a massive hit with their song Good Vibrations which is an important work in rock history. It was famously ranked No. 1 on the list of Top 250 American Songs. You know the song. We all do. “Good, good, good, good vibrations,” indeed.

For those that aren’t immersed in TikTok and online culture, “vibe investing” has emerged as a speculative, sentiment-driven strategy, prioritizing market mood, social narratives, and influencer hype over traditional fundamental analysis (management effectiveness, competitive advantages, and broader economic conditions) when assessing whether a stock is over- or undervalued. And for some investors, it delivers good, good vibrations.

Geoffrey Chaucer, in his 14th-century work, The Canterbury Tales, noted that “time and tide wait for no man.” Blink, and we’re already halfway through 2026.

Around this time, many financial institutions publish a stock market outlook for the second half of the year. We’ll read them as we always do, but we don’t take them as gospel truth. Because nobody can truly predict the direction of the markets, we remember to stay diversified across multiple asset classes and sectors.

Let’s look at a few of these outlooks.

Is the artificial intelligence (AI) bill coming due?

Maybe. The "Magnificent Seven" stocks (Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Tesla) plus Broadcom and Oracle have lost roughly US$2.7 trillion in market value in June, according to Yahoo Finance analysis.

The story that topped the headlines last week was the initial public offering (IPO) of Elon Musk’s space and artificial intelligence (AI) company, SpaceX, which raised a record-breaking US$75 billion last Thursday.

Financial markets attract IPOs, and some of them come with plenty of hype. Maybe to some, “markets” is short for “marketing.” It can be easy to get caught up, but it’s always wise to be disciplined and cautious.

Since the dawn of time, stories have been central to how we make sense of the world. Think of your day: Every conversation, every email, every text, and even your thoughts are made up of short stories or narratives.

From the earliest cave paintings to the latest binge-worthy Netflix series, the art of narrative has always been an integral part of the human experience.

Stories have a way to move stock markets.