Economics is a branch of social science that focuses on the production, consumption and transfer of wealth. It is broken into macroeconomics and microeconomics. Macroeconomics focuses on large-scale factors - interest rates, national and international productivity, etc. Microeconomics, on the other hand,  focuses on the behaviour of individuals, businesses and organisations, when it comes to using their wealth.

So what does this have to do with investing?

Canada has weathered trade wars with the United States as far back as the late 19th century. Tariffs can affect economic growth, consumer spending, trade flows, government revenue, exchange rates, employment, and inflation. As a result, tariffs can and do introduce a layer of uncertainty.

We don’t want to speak for everyone, but juggling the tariffs-on, tariffs-off, tariffs-back-on, and maybe-tariffs-will-be-cancelled balls is getting a bit frustrating. And the markets seem to agree. Up, down, up, down. We’re all getting tired!

Does the size of a business matter?

Larger companies certainly have some advantages. Their size often provides easier access to funding, higher brand recognition, and an established position in the market with support of existing customers.

We can’t seem to stop talking about the impact of trade tariffs on economies and stock markets. But while everyone is distracted by that conversation, another important issue is lurking in the background that could have as big an impact, if not a bigger one. National debt.

Valentine’s Day occurs this week. And, almost on cue, the price of flowers (particularly roses), chocolates, jewellery and dining go up, as people celebrate in Canada, the United States (U.S.) and around the globe. The history of Valentine’s Day, however, is quite dark. We’ve included some links on the side bar, if you want to go down that rabbit hole. All of this said, it appears that U.S. imports of products for Valentine’s Day have avoided import tariffs in 2025. The story for 2026, however, could be significantly different.

Topics for weekly updates often come from questions asked by our clients. It should come as no surprise that tariffs have been on everyone’s mind. How could they not be? It’s all the media has talked about for the past two weeks. So… whether tariffs are on, off, or off and then on, how does a tariff imposed by the United States (U.S.) on Canadian exports impact the economy, equity markets and, of course, investment portfolios?

We don’t plan for disruptions. They just happen. And they can happen at any time and to anyone and anything. A recent example of disruption is the Covid pandemic which impacted lives, businesses, and countries. The pandemic disrupted our plans to meet with our clients in-person for more than two years.

Phrases like "January effect" and “sell in May and go away” have dubious records as long-term investing strategies. According to Morningstar Direct data, in the past 20 years, January had the highest total return for the year in only four years - 2012, 2013, 2018, and 2019. Not bad, but not good enough to become the cornerstone of an investing strategy.

We read a lot of forecasts from a lot of different sources. The only thing that people know for sure is that they don’t agree with each other completely, but there are often areas that they do agree. Whether the “consensus opinion” turns out to be right, depends on factors outside of our control, of course.